P2P热潮背后的数字

P2P风头正盛。支付宝上个月推出招财宝,前天小米与顺为投资了积木盒子。这篇稿子,源于前不久的一次闲谈——上个月,我在北京拜访了花果金融,这家今年1月2日才上线的P2P公司,半年后便获得了蓝基金(蓝色经济区产业投资基金)和首都科技集团战略投资。

1月2日上线至今,花果金融为70家企业完成借款筹资超过5亿元,其中12837名投资人分享了理财收益6566万元。

初创的公司,有这样业绩,除了自身硬之外,更重要的是,站在风口上。雷军说,台风起来时猪都飞。诚然。P2P自然是风口浪尖,风潮之后,更要优雅落地。今天主要讲讲,P2P浪潮能有多高,浪潮之后如何优雅姿态,当然,都是从数字出发。

9000亿VS12万亿

P2P是互联网金融的一部分,我们所知道的,互联网其实是对传统线下业务的一个映射。余额宝之于货币基金,支付宝之于POS机、钱包、现金…互联网的一切都有物理世界的映射,映射之外,更有颠覆,通过技术手段,降低门槛或成本的颠覆。

既然互联网对线下有映射,那么P2P要颠覆的传统金融是哪一块呢?

显而易见的,P2P首先要颠覆的是传统的线下小贷业务。与传统的小贷业务相比较,互联网P2P的优势,其实是在后端——资金来源的门槛降低,通过互联网的方式,打破了地域空间的限制。

花果金融的联合创始人惠轶说,他倒不完全认同这个观点。在他看来,P2P自然是颠覆了传统的线下小贷,但P2P要颠覆的远不止线下小贷,P2P要真正颠覆的是——传统信托。

惠轶说,线下小贷,2013年为9000亿,信托是12万亿。今年整个P2P规模大约在3000亿的规模,两年时间已经切下传统小贷三分之一的市场,并且P2P整个市场还在高速增长——支付宝、小米、平安陆金所都在杀入P2P市场,其实也可以证明这一点,P2P如果仅仅是颠覆小贷,巨头们是不惜得做的,毕竟小贷市场小。

9000亿的小贷市场,与12万亿的信托市场,P2P即便只是切下10%的市场也有1.29万亿。

3%~3.5% VS 5亿

上面我们讲了P2P要颠覆的,不仅是小贷,还有信托市场。接下来两个数字,则是P2P公司的能够赚到的钱,流水的3%~3.5%。

惠轶说,花果金融与其他P2P一样,都是佣金提成。行业的平均水准是3%~3.5%。当然,并不排除诸如支付宝、平安陆金所这样大平台,能够获取更多的扣点。

接下来,我们可以算一笔账,今年P2P市场规模大致在3000亿,也就是说,P2P公司能够拿到90~105亿的钱。短短两年功夫,便有这么大的一个市场,这是P2P能够在今年爆发的一个很重要的原因。
另外一个数字是5亿。据初步统计,全国大大小小的P2P公司有上千家,行业像在重复2010年团购竞赛的“千团大战”,互联网的模式是,赢者通吃,大者恒大,但在P2P,在互联网金融方面,却未必会遵循马太效应,这将会是一个相对分散的市场。

惠轶说,将来会有面向全国类型的P2P平台,也有面向垂直行业的P2P公司。虽然不会一家独大,但整个行业会进行一个淘汰,有个市场集中的过程。对于P2P公司来说,有一个生死线,便是5亿——流水过5亿,便能进可攻,退可守,在行业里安身立命。

5亿多的流水,背后是3%~3.5%的佣金,那也意味着有1500~1750万的收入,以花果金融这样的创业公司为例,20人团队,一个月100万的费用,日子便会很滋润啦。

6万VS100万

根据花果金融的数据,1月2日上线至今,12837人参与了投资,这个数字,比起其他互联网的创业项目而言,多少有些小巫见大巫,要知道,余额宝用户约为1.24亿。

其实,花果金融1万多用户的数据,在行业里并不算低的,甚至是很高的。1万用户,5亿流水,平均下来每人5万。这是在P2P里也算很高的数字。

花果金融的联合创始人惠轶介绍,去年P2P行业大约是6万,今年有望突破100万。这样的增长速度,可以说是膨胀。与用户数激增对应的,是风投的杀入,统计数据显示,去年我国P2P行业共有16起融资案例,10家网贷获得投资,而今年上半年就有10起融资,融资金额约为20亿。

以上种种来看,P2P已经不再是等风来,浪潮已经汹涌。惠轶也承认,P2P市场尽管不会一家独大,但市场总会相对集中,P2P的投资者6万也好,100万也好,始终都是考核投资回报率的精英人士——宜信也好,积木盒子也好,花果金融也好,投资者看重的是回报率,与风险可控。

市场会集中,投资者看重投资回报率的同时,更要风险可控。风险可控,明确的有担保公司担保,P2P公司不作资金池之外,还有些不能具化,却能够被投资者感知的——那就是品牌。金融说到底,还是信任。支付宝,有信任备书,陆金所有平安集团备书,那么创业公司该如何做品牌备书呢?

其实答案已经很明显了——积木盒子找的投资,是小米、雷军的顺为基金,花果金融的品牌备书同样来自投资者,不过,花果金融不把它的投资看作是VC,而是战略投资。蓝色经济区产业投资基金和首都科技集团,国字头的公司投资。

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